Diversified pathway
A balance of electrification, low- and zero-carbon gas and carbon capture using gas infrastructure.
About the study
While Ontario is on track to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, achieving net-zero*Net zero means reducing GHG emissions to as close to zero as possible, then balancing any remaining emissions with an equivalent amount of carbon removal through environmental actions and innovative technology.
https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/net-zero-emissions-2050.html will require further actions. How will we effectively meet Ontario’s future energy needs while reducing emissions? How can we make sure energy is there when we need it, at the lowest cost? What investments are needed today, and what policies must be put in place to enable them?
Enbridge Gas engaged a consultant, Guidehouse, to assess the feasibility of two pathways to net zero. The study finds that, compared to an electrification pathway, a diversified pathway is the most practical way to achieve net zero emissions in Ontario while being more reliable, resilient and affordable.
Two pathways to net zero were evaluated
Electrification pathway
Deep electrification of all sectors, using low- and zero-carbon gas and carbon capture only when no alternative energy source exists.
The study assessed two pathways based on emission reductions, energy system reliability, resiliency and cost. It also included a sensitivity analysis that looked at how various changes in assumptions impacted each scenario. The diversified scenario was the most optimal approach to reach net zero by 2050. Hybrid heating further optimizes the diversified scenario.
Key findings
A diversified pathway that leverages both Ontario’s gas and electric systems can achieve net zero, with greater:
Reliability
Meets the energy needs of Ontario homes and businesses, even on the hottest and coldest days of the year.
Resiliency
Protects against impacts from extreme events, such as weather and cybersecurity incidents.
Affordability
Achieves the same outcome as the electrification pathway at less cost.
Consumer choice
Allows Ontario energy consumers the flexibility to make choices on their path to net zero while minimizing costs.
Competitiveness
Provides more affordable energy to help businesses stay competitive and thrive.
Both pathways can achieve net zero by 2050
Electrification scenario
$722 billion
Electrification of all sectors,
using low- and zero-carbon
natural gas
using low- and zero-carbon
natural gas
Diversified scenario
$672 billion
A balance of electrification,
low- and zero-carbon gas
and carbon capture, using
gas infrastructure
low- and zero-carbon gas
and carbon capture, using
gas infrastructure
Notable insights
A diversified pathway is further optimized with hybrid heating
Retrofitting with hybrid heating is simpler, reduces costs for Ontarians and uses both the electric and gas systems to increase system reliability.
Low-carbon gas and carbon capture are key to net zero
Both pathways rely on hydrogen, renewable natural gas (RNG) and natural gas with carbon capture, particularly in sectors that are difficult to electrify.
The electric system must be scaled up
With either pathway, Ontario will need to significantly scale up electrical generation and infrastructure to meet peak energy needs.
Ontario’s gas distribution system should be leveraged
Both pathways require gas infrastructure to carry low- and zero-carbon gas, such as hydrogen and RNG.
Safe bets Ontario must act on today
Regardless of the pathway chosen, there are actions that must be taken immediately to successfully reach net zero.
Maximize energy efficiency
Energy conservation is essential to success for any pathway to net zero.
Optimize and integrate energy system planning
Maintain reliable and resilient energy supply in Ontario by integrating gas and electric systems and planning. Hybrid heating is a good example of both systems working together.
Use carbon capture and storage (CCS)
CCS is needed to produce low-carbon hydrogen and to decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial processes.
Want to learn more? Download the materials.
Questions about the study?
Contact our Energy Transition team for further information.
*Enbridge Gas is addressing net-zero emissions from energy.
